Liberal delusions in full flower:

Liberalism has always been the common sense of the English-speaking white part of the public sphere in South Africa. These days, it is a sea in which a much wider array of people swim. 

The ideology of a demographic minority has become culturally normalised across many parts of society. In journalism, business, think-tanks, NGOs and much of the academy, liberalism is often assumed to be common sense, rather than ideology. 

There are relatively pragmatic forms of liberalism willing to compromise on some issues, such as accepting the minimum wage and affirmative action. But on the right of the liberal spectrum a form of liberalism, sometimes termed “classical liberalism”, is understood as an ideological crusade. 

In the thriving network of public-facing think-tanks operating in this space there is an overweening sense of moral superiority perhaps enabled by a white revanchism driven by the collapse in the ANC’s moral standing and the open claims of civilisational superiority being made in the West as it drives a new cold war.

This arrogance frequently has a paranoid underside. It is often accompanied by a strong tendency to conspiracy theory. This includes hallucinating non-existent Marxist plots and sometimes extraordinary and wholly unevidenced claims about Russian, Chinese and Iranian conspiracies involving South Africa. This paranoia is very familiar to anyone who lived in South Africa during the last Cold War. 

The refusal to understand that ethics is not simply the moral expression of liberalism was evident in the way that leading public figures on the liberal right responded to the government’s decision to take Israel to the International Court of Justice. 

For Ray Hartley and Greg Mills South Africa’s “action at the International Criminal Court of Justice has exposed the African National Congress …The ruling party is clearly no friend of liberal values.”

James Myburgh, editor of Politicsweb, took a far more extreme position, declaring that “South Africa resurrected Hitlerism at The Hague”.

Frans Cronje, former head of the South African Institute of Race Relations, wrote that “opinion in Western-style liberal democracies” is insufficiently supportive of Israel and is “evolving to evade or even deny the unpleasant choices necessary for some free societies to endure”.

Nicholas Woode-Smith summarily dismissed South Africa’s case against Israel as “shameful” and “insincere”. He added that it made South Africa “a laughing stock among the nations that matter in the world”. For Woode-Smith, South African foreign policy is routinely shaped by bribery by foreign dictators and it is “most likely” that South Africa took this action because it was bribed to do so by Iran. He provided no evidence for his claim.

Liberalism has always been entwined with both whiteness and the claims to superiority by the West, by what Woode-Smith, writing with casual neo-Trumpian racism, calls “the nations that matter in the world”. It has never extended rights to all and has always had an outside beyond which certain nations and people do not matter. It is “the nations that matter in the world” that recently destroyed Iraq, Haiti and Palestine, nations that do not matter to the liberal West.

Israel’s President Isaac Herzog was correct to say that the assault on Gaza is “intended — really, truly — to save Western civilization, to save the values of Western civilization”. Hartley and Mills were correct to describe the approach to the ICJ as contrary to liberal values because it was predicated on the principle that people outside of the West, people who are not white, and often not Christian, matter.

The liberalism espoused by organisations such as the Brenthurst Foundation and the Institute of Race Relations takes a hard right position on geopolitics. Liberal organisations such the Free Market Foundation and the Centre for Development and Enterprise take an equally hard right position on economic questions. They push for even more brutal forms of austerity than those currently imposed on our society and for undoing the limited forms of social protection introduced by the ANC. 

These kinds of economic policies have enabled elite enrichment at the cost of wider social devastation wherever they have been implemented, often producing forms of right-wing populism as a result. The sorry state of the UK under the Tories is a good example of this, one of many. 

In striking contrast, the progressive governments in Latin America, including Brazil under Lula da Silva, Bolivia under Evo Morales, and Mexico under Andrés Manuel López Obrador, have enabled simultaneous processes of democratisation and social progress for the worst off. 

They certainly have limits and contradictions but offer a vastly better model than the hard right formula of austerity, privatisation, abandoning the minimum wage, shrinking the state and so on, advanced by the ideologues on the liberal right. These ideologues are, to be clear, fundamentalists rather than pragmatists. In some cases it is no exaggeration to describe their views on economics as extremist.

Along with hard right positions on geopolitics and economics, the liberal right is also often marked by a bizarre and very American paranoia about “wokism” and “critical race theory” and a general refusal to take the lived and structural realities of race and racism seriously. Helen Zille is perhaps the most prominent example of the often-conspiratorial paranoia about “critical race theory” which, among other oddities, often bizarrely sees it, along with postmodernism, as a hidden form of Marxism.

Since it became clear that the ANC was open to some kind of deal with the Democratic Alliance (DA), the most right-wing liberal institutes and media projects have been hugely energised and excited, often seeming to assume that they will be able to swiftly impose their agenda on society. This excitement is on full display in the mainstream liberal media as well as smaller and more right-wing media projects such as BizNews and the Daily Friend. 

It is well captured in an article by Jonathan Katzenellenbogen in the Daily Friend.

He begins by declaring that “we have not experienced this sort of euphoria since 1994” and assumes that the new government has a mandate for the standard set of socially destructive neoliberal economic policies. He does not seem to care that the “we” he refers to in his opening line cannot refer to the South African people as a whole. 

Katzenellenbogen seems not to understand that, while the DA might have a mandate for neoliberal economic policies, that mandate only comes from a fifth of the votes cast in an election in which most people did not vote. By Lucien van der Walt’s calculation, the DA received the support of 8% of eligible voters.

In a move marked by a fairly extreme expression of liberal arrogance, he calls for neoliberalism to be swiftly imposed by a “shock-and-awe” programme. This is extraordinary. Shock and awe is a strategy of the US military particularly associated with the invasion of Iraq in 2003. That invasion was an unlawful and criminal act, carried out by the leading powers of the West in the name of liberalism. It destroyed Iraq and appropriated its oil wealth at the cost of over a million lives. 

Katzenellenbogen’s choice of this militarised metaphor is irredeemably entwined with Western and white supremacy, with the assumption that not all people count as people. It can only be read as revealing a highly aggressive and colonial form of political desire, an anti-democratic form of political desire.

The overwhelmingly white, and often euphoric and frenzied, expressions of a will to power by the liberal right in the wake of the election are more an expression of fantasy, a fantasy grounded in an assumption of a right to rule, than reality. 

The DA did not win the election. If it follows the right flank of the liberal establishment, and tries to impose all its policies on the ANC, its relationship with the ANC is likely to swiftly collapse. 

If the ANC concedes too much to the DA it will face a revolt within its ranks, including from its left flank in the SACP and Cosatu, possibly supported by the left outside of the ANC. In the unlikely event that the ANC concedes to the agenda of the liberal right, and is not overcome by an internal revolt, it will lose the next election.

The liberal right is not a viable alternative to the authoritarian, violent, predatory, and deeply socially conservative politics of the uMkhonto weSizwe party. Neither the ANC, the organised left in and outside of the ANC nor South Africans in general will accept hard right economic policies or a slavish affiliation with the West.

The urgency to build a viable, socially orientated and democratising alternative rooted in popular organisation could hardly be greater.

Richard Pithouse is a research associate in the philosophy department at the University of Connecticut.

– The Mail & Guardian

KwaZulu-Natal premier Thami Ntuli confident voters will not punish IFP over unity government participation: Ntuli said the IFP tried to talk to the ‘chaotic’ uMkhonto we Sizwe party but was stood up

– The Mail & Guardian

Effective gold trading techniques for experienced investors:

Understanding the market and a well-defined trading plan are essential for success

In the realm of trading, gold remains a cornerstone investment for many, particularly for those looking to diversify their portfolios and hedge against market volatility. For experienced investors in South Africa, mastering how to trade gold can significantly enhance their trading strategies and potential profits. This article delves into advanced gold trading techniques tailored for seasoned investors, focusing on the nuances of the South African market.

Understanding the gold market

Before diving into trading techniques, it’s crucial to understand the gold market’s dynamics. Gold prices are influenced by a myriad of factors, including geopolitical events, economic data, and currency fluctuations. In South Africa, the gold market is particularly significant due to the country’s status as one of the world’s largest gold producers.

Key factors influencing gold prices

1. Economic indicators: Inflation rates, interest rates, and GDP growth are pivotal in determining gold prices.
2. Geopolitical events: Political instability and conflicts can lead to higher gold prices as investors seek safe-haven assets.
3. Currency movements: Since gold is priced in US dollars, any fluctuation in the USD/ZAR exchange rate directly impacts the gold market in South Africa.
4. Supply and demand: Global supply constraints or increased demand from sectors like jewelry and technology can influence prices.

Advanced trading techniques

1. Technical analysis

For experienced traders, technical analysis is an essential tool. It involves studying historical price charts and using indicators to forecast future price movements. Key techniques include:

• Moving averages: Utilising short-term and long-term moving averages to identify trends and potential entry and exit points.
• Relative Strength Index (RSI): Analysing overbought or oversold conditions to anticipate price reversals.
• Fibonacci retracement: Applying Fibonacci levels to predict potential support and resistance levels.

2. Fundamental analysis

While technical analysis focuses on price patterns, fundamental analysis examines the underlying factors driving gold prices. For South African traders, this includes:

• Mining production reports: Monitoring production levels from major South African gold mines.
• Economic data releases: Keeping an eye on South African economic indicators and how they affect the local currency and gold prices.
• Global economic trends: Understanding how international economic events impact gold demand and supply.

3. Sentiment analysis

Sentiment analysis involves gauging the market’s mood through various indicators:

• Commitment of Traders (COT) Reports: Analysing the positions of large traders to understand market sentiment.
• News and social media: Keeping abreast of news articles and social media trends to gauge public sentiment towards gold.

Effective risk management

Advanced traders know that successful trading isn’t just about making profits but also managing risks effectively. Key strategies include:

• Position sizing: Allocating a percentage of the trading capital to each trade to manage exposure.
• Stop-loss orders: Setting predetermined exit points to minimise losses in adverse market conditions.
• Diversification: Spreading investments across different assets to mitigate risks.

Diversification strategies for gold trading

Diversification is a crucial risk management strategy. For advanced traders, this means not only spreading investments across different asset classes, but also within the gold market itself. Here are some diversification techniques:

• Physical gold: Investing in gold bullion or coins.
• Gold ETFs: Trading gold exchange-traded funds, which offer exposure to gold without the need to own physical gold.
• Gold mining stocks: Investing in shares of gold mining companies, particularly those based in South Africa.
• Gold futures and options: Engaging in more sophisticated trading instruments that allow for leveraging positions and hedging strategies.

Utilising leverage wisely

Leverage can amplify profits, but it also increases risk. Experienced traders should use leverage judiciously:

• Margin trading: Using borrowed funds to increase trading position size. This requires a thorough understanding of margin requirements and the ability to manage margin calls.
• Hedging: Employing strategies like options contracts to hedge against potential losses in gold positions.

Timing the market

Timing is everything in gold trading. Advanced traders use various techniques to enter and exit the market at the most opportune moments:

• Market cycles: Understanding the cyclical nature of gold prices, including seasonal trends.
• Event-driven trading: Responding to major economic announcements, geopolitical events, and central bank policies that impact gold prices.

South Africa-specific considerations

South Africa’s unique position in the global gold market presents specific opportunities and challenges for traders:

• Local regulations: Staying informed about South African regulations that affect gold trading, including taxation and import/export controls.
• Mining sector insights: Leveraging insights from the local mining sector to anticipate changes in gold supply and prices.
• Currency fluctuations: Managing the impact of the Rand’s volatility against major currencies, particularly the US dollar.

Developing a robust trading plan

A well-defined trading plan is essential for success. Key components of a robust gold trading plan include:

• Clear objectives: Setting specific, measurable, achievable, relevant, and time-bound (SMART) goals.
• Detailed analysis: Combining technical, fundamental, and sentiment analysis to inform trading decisions.
• Risk management: Implementing strict risk management protocols, including stop-loss orders and position sizing.
• Regular review: Continuously reviewing and adjusting the trading plan based on performance and changing market conditions.

Conclusion

Trading gold effectively requires a combination of technical skills, market knowledge, and strategic planning. For experienced investors in South Africa, understanding how to trade gold within the context of local and global market dynamics can significantly enhance trading performance. By leveraging advanced techniques, managing risks prudently, and staying informed about market trends, traders can optimise their gold trading strategies for maximum profitability.

– The Mail & Guardian

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