South Africa’s maize production prospects lowered again:
South Africa is on its eighth summer grain and oilseeds production forecast for the 2023-24 season. Given that we are at the tail end of the season, and will soon be in the mid-October optimal planting window for the 2024-25 production season, we thought there would be no more major revisions of the production figures at this late stage.
But this has not been a typical season, and the lower producer deliveries we have been observing over the past few weeks are not only a function of on-farm storage but a poor harvest. Indeed, we struggled with a mid-summer drought in February and March, undermining crop yield potential in various regions.
On September 26, South Africa’s Crop Estimates Committee lowered the 2023-24 maize harvest to 12,8 million tonnes, down 2% from last month and 22% from the previous season. This sharp decline in harvest prospects shows the harsh impact of the drought.
Of the current estimate, white maize is about 6,08 million tonnes (down 2% m/m), with yellow maize at 6,72 million tonnes (down 2% m/m). The current maize crop of 12,8 million tonnes is the lowest in six years, again showing the impact of the drought.
We believe the expected harvest and carryover stocks from last season will meet South Africa’s annual maize consumption of roughly 12 million tonnes. This will leave the country with a sizable volume for export markets.
The data from the South African Grains and Oilseed Supply and Demand Estimates Committee suggests that the country’s maize exports could reach 1,85 million tonnes in the 2024-25 marketing year (this corresponds with the 2023-24 production season).
In the week of September 13, about 843 000 tonnes had already been exported. The 2024-25 marketing year started on May 1.
In this export forecast, about 1,2 million tonnes will probably be white maize, with 650 000 tonnes yellow maize. Still, the estimated exports of 1,85 million tonnes are down notably from 3,4 million tonnes in the previous 2023-24 marketing year (this corresponds with the last 2022-23 production season).
With the further downward revision of the harvest, we suspect that the export figure might have to be revised somewhat, particularly the white maize component.
Also worth noting is that while South Africa will probably remain a net exporter of maize in the 2024-25 marketing year (which corresponds with the 2023-24 production season), the coastal regions will import small volumes of yellow maize for animal feed because of price advantage. We have recently seen the imports of yellow maize from Argentina through Cape Town.
South Africa’s 2024-25 maize imports stand at 173 000 tonnes. The imports for the 2024-25 marketing year could rise to 350 000 tonnes. Brazil is another potential supplier of yellow maize to the country.
Importantly, these figures are still tentative. There could be adjustments in the coming months, particularly on white maize export forecasts. We are in a tricky season, with many unknowns, and the recent downward revision of white maize has further complicated the situation.
The implication for the consumer is that white maize prices might remain elevated over the near term. On September 26, the white maize spot price traded at around R5 505 per tonne, roughly 38% up year-on-year.
Meanwhile, yellow maize was at R4 240 per tonne, up 10% year-on-year.
The price difference is because of the abundant yellow maize supplies in the world market relative to scarcer white maize.
The regional demand for white maize will also continue to present upward price pressures, especially towards the end of the year and going into the first few months of 2025.
Wandile Sihlobo is the chief economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber of SA and a senior fellow in Stellenbosch University’s Department of Agricultural Economics. His latest book is A Country of Two Agricultures.
A war foretold: The grown-ups need to stand up to prevent it:
As in Chronicle of a Death Foretold by Gabriel Márquez there are signs telling us what is coming. As in the novel, these are being ignored. The signs are telling us that the world is moving closer to a wider war in the Middle East, a war that will result in more boots on the ground, more deaths and more suffering.
Since the start of Israel’s war on Gaza at least 116 journalists have been killed, making this the deadliest war for journalists in history. Almost 20 000 children have been killed. The number of UN and aid workers killed is the “the highest ever in a single crisis”. Israel has bombed embassies, killing diplomats and high-ranking officials from Syria, Iran and Lebanon.
Israel has killed people protected by diplomatic immunity without any consequence, such as the August killing of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, shortly after he attended the inauguration of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. In July, Israel assassinated Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut with a “precision strike”, which killed seven civilians, along with an Iranian Revolutionary Guard.
Israel’s war crimes have been systematically enabled and legitimated by the Western powers. The contrast between how the West responded when Russia invaded Ukraine could hardly be starker. This double standard has been repeated here in South Africa as the Western-aligned commentators and media organisations that became frenzied after Russia invaded Ukraine have fallen silent.
According to the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project, Israel has conducted over 17 000 attacks in five countries since the Hamas attack on the southern towns of Israel in October 2023. These include the occupied Palestinian territory, Iran, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen. In Lebanon, the Israel Defence Forces have killed over a thousand people.
It seems clear that Israel is endeavouring to expand its war against Gaza into a regional conflagration. Israel is trying to force a geopolitical shift in the Middle East that will push the US to become more directly involved in the conflict than just providing weapons, money and ideological and diplomatic cover. The build-up of US warships in the Red Sea and personnel in the Middle East increases the possibility of violent encounters with forces fighting against Israel.
The expanding war will continue to divide not only the Middle East but the world. The leeway and latitude given to Israel by the West continues to erode not only the “liberal democratic order” but also the idea that there is a rules-based international order.
It continues to undermine global institutions such as the UN and it continues to push the Global South to look for groupings and institutions outside of those led by the West as the standing of these is being deliberately enervated. The Global South watches as Israel’s impunity is allowed to continue; acts that no other county on the planet would be allowed to even contemplate are excused and rationalised.
Here in South Africa, that part of the largely white commentariat and media that refuses to condemn Israel in the same way that it condemned Russia after the invasion of Ukraine stands similarly exposed for its gross double standards. There is a deep rift between it and much of the rest of the country.
The US has failed to rein in Israel, despite its many egregious acts of systematic violence and crimes against humanity perpetrated against Palestinians, with American weapons. The US has stood by Israel, joining it in warning Iran and other countries against retaliating or considering retribution against Israeli strikes. This continues to give Israel the kind of carte blanche that no other country in the world enjoys.
This past year, we have watched on our screens in real time as the Israel Defence Forces committed genocide. The International Court of Justice has made provisional genocide findings against Tel Aviv and the International Criminal Court is seeking indictments against Israeli leaders for crimes against humanity.
Despite this, the US and its allies, including its proxies here at home, will maintain that they are completely behind Israel. This makes it unequivocally clear that Israel can do no wrong in the eyes of the West.
This past Friday, Hassan Nasrallah, the Lebanese Shia and Hezbollah leader, was killed in Beirut by an Israeli attack using bunker-busting bombs which are forbidden by the Geneva Convention from being used in densely populated areas. At least six large apartment buildings were destroyed in this attack, leaving many injured and homeless.
After the Israeli-orchestrated explosion of pagers and walkie-talkies in Lebanon, Nasrallah had anticipated his death repeatedly saying in a recent recorded speech, “If you will see me again …”
The killing of Nasrallah and the other Hezbollah leaders who died with him will not stop or break Hezbollah. Hezbollah was forged to fight Israeli occupation in Lebanon and in Palestine. As long as the world stands back and allows Israel to act with impunity the commitment to resist Israel will only grow across the region.
Despite Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu repeatedly praising himself for creating “the conditions to both return all our abductees and achieve the goals of the war”, he has scuppered attempts to end the war on Gaza, allowed more Israeli abductees to die in captivity and deliberately and consistently pushed for the expansion of the war.
Despite the world knowing all this, knowing what type of a politician Netanyahu is and seeing him push Israel and the world into a more widespread war, nothing is being done to stop the coming hostilities. Even though this script has been written and played out before, it is being allowed to happen again.
Diplomacy has worked to resolve many seemingly intractable conflicts, such as that in South Africa. This country’s negotiated settlement was not perfect and some of its shortcomings still reverberate. However, at some point, all sides accepted that the status quo could not hold. They had to accept that they would not get everything that they wanted. As the intellectual Neville Alexander argued the settlement remains vastly preferable to the alternative, which would have been a long war that neither side had the capacity to win outright.
When it comes to Israel, however, there does not seem to be the political will in Tel Aviv, or from its backers in the West, to reach a point of compromise.
Until this changes there is never going to be peace and security for Israel. Indeed, there is never going to be peace for the whole of the Middle East. The generational strife and hatred in the region is likely to continue unabated until the grown-ups can stand up.
However, this is not going to happen for as long as the US government — from the White House to Congress — continues to fan the flames by giving Netanyahu standing ovations and continually stating that Israel has the right to defend itself against Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran.
With the West unable or unwilling to do the hard work to tame Israel the rest of the world, including the Global South, needs to take the lead. South Africa, in its leadership of the G20, needs to rally like-minded leaders who support the use of negotiation and compromise to bring the war in Gaza to an end and prevent the expansion of the conflict.
Nontobeko Hlela is a research fellow with the Institute for Pan African Thought & Conversation in Johannesburg and a non-resident fellow on the Global South with the Quincy Institute in Washington.
Petrol prices set to decrease by R1.14 from Wednesday:
Motorists can expect relief at the fuel pumps in October, with the price of all grades of petrol and diesel set to decrease from Wednesday, according to the latest monthly adjustments announced by the department of mineral and petroleum resources.
The price of 95 octane petrol will drop by R1.06 a litre while that for 93 octane will fall by R1.14, the department said on Monday. The diesel price will be reduced by R1.14 a litre and illuminating paraffin, which many low income South African households still rely on for cooking and lighting, will be R1.48 lower.
This is the fifth consecutive month that petrol prices have declined, with 95 octane petrol set to cost R21.05 a litre in Gauteng from Wednesday from R25.49 in May.
South Africa adjusts its fuel prices each month, based on the global oil price and the rand exchange rate.
The department attributed the latest round of price decreases to a mix of local and international factors, the most prominent being a dip in the average Brent crude oil price from $ 78.54 to $ 72.82 a barrel for the period under review. This was a result of increased production from major oil-producing countries despite lower demand concerns.
“The rand appreciated on average, against the US dollar … during the period under review. This led to lower contributions to the basic fuel prices of all products by over 21.00 cents per litre,” the department added.
The department said it had approved the implementation of revised transport tariffs into the petrol, diesel and illuminating paraffin price structures as an interim measure after the port of Port Elizabeth was temporarily closed after an accident in June.
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