How the US-Israel-Iran conflict is reshaping South Africa’s coal exports:
The US-Israel war on Iran, which has sent shockwaves through global energy markets, is creating new opportunities for South Africa’s coal exporters as countries grapple with volatile oil prices, shipping disruptions and energy security concerns.
But while coal producers stand to benefit from stronger prices and export demand, researchers warn that increased coal production and exports carry significant environmental and social costs, from greenhouse gas emissions to the impacts borne by communities living near mines and coal-fired power stations.
The benefits of coal expansion are not evenly distributed. Communities living near coal mines and coal-fired power stations continue to bear many of the environmental and health costs associated with extraction and combustion.
Political economist and University of Johannesburg academic professor Patrick Bond argues that the damage extends far beyond local pollution.
“Combustion of coal is the main cause of the climate crisis,” he says, “and mines cause deadly local pollution and destruction of land, air and water.”
He adds that the climate costs of coal exports are staggering and rarely accounted for economically.
“At a social cost of carbon of $ 1 200 (about R19 554) per tonne, a typical large shipload causes climate damage of $ 530 million (about R8.7 billion).”
The climate, environmental and social impacts of coal mining and burning are “severe”, gender and climate change researcher Dr Thembi Luckett, says. This is particularly for communities that live close to coal mines and power stations.
“These communities are black, working-class communities living under the shadow of power stations and whose suffering is rendered permissible in the name of ‘economic growth’.”
The war triggered sharp increases in fuel and shipping costs globally. Crude oil prices briefly climbed to $ 126 per barrel in April before easing below $ 100 after ceasefire discussions emerged and later settling at above $ 100. Diesel prices surged by 70% while shipping costs rose by 40%.
For many climate analysts, the crisis appeared to strengthen the case for renewable energy. United Nations climate chief Simon Stiell argues that the war has “supercharged” global shifts toward renewable energy as countries searched for alternatives to the volatility of fossil fuel markets.
However, while some analysts expected higher oil prices to accelerate the shift to renewable energy, coal markets have also benefited from the uncertainty, with stronger demand and higher prices in several regions.
For South Africa, a country with abundant solar and wind potential and an officially stated commitment to a just energy transition, this presents a complex picture. South Africa appears to be among the countries experiencing renewed demand for coal exports.
Bond says the country is seeing a significant increase in coal exports linked to the broader geopolitical crisis.
“Much, much more,” Bond said when asked whether South Africa was selling more coal internationally since the escalation of the war.
Asian thermal coal prices rose between 11% and 12.6% after the conflict intensified. High-grade Australian coal rose to around $ 130.81 per tonne, with analysts warning prices could rise further if liquefied natural gas becomes too expensive relative to coal.
South African coal producers have positioned themselves to benefit. Mining titan Exxaro Resources announced in March that its coal exports could rise by as much as 12% in 2026, potentially reaching 8 million metric tonnes, compared to 7.1 million tonnes the previous year.
The company linked the forecast to energy market disruptions associated with the conflict and rising coal prices. Although export coal prices averaged around $ 90 per tonne in Exxaro’s annual reporting period, geopolitical instability has since contributed to renewed upward pressure.
Bond notes that the increase is not only reflected in prices but also in export volumes.
“Yes, the price is increasing,” he said, “but so is the annual volume of coal exports — mainly to India — up from a low of 47 million tonnes in 2021, when Transnet had many broken rail components, to close to 60 million tonnes anticipated this year.”
The economic incentives are significant. Higher coal prices translate into increased export revenues, stronger returns for investors and greater incentives for continued coal production.
Exxaro declared total shareholder payouts of R6.3 billion in 2026 despite declining profits, while continuing to invest in both coal and renewable energy. “The rate of coal sales increased especially after Colombia halted them [coal sales to Israel] in August 2025,” Bond says.
After Colombia’s decision to ban coal exports to Israel over the war in Gaza, South Africa became a significantly larger supplier of coal to Israel.
Reuters reported that South African coal exports to Israel increased by 87% to 474 000 metric tonnes in the three months to November 2025. They reached 667 442 tonnes over a three-month period, the highest level recorded since 2017.
According to Kpler data cited by Reuters, South Africa’s share of Israel’s seaborne coal market is expected to rise to 55%, more than triple its previous share. The trend highlights a tension at the centre of South Africa’s energy policy.
South Africa publicly positions itself as committed to a just energy transition, with billions in international climate finance secured to support a move away from coal. Yet rising global demand and stronger prices continue to create incentives for coal extraction and export.
There is also South Africa’s case before the International Court of Justice in The Hague, where it has accused Israel of genocide against Palestinians in Gaza. The country’s coal exports to Israel have drawn criticism from some civil society organisations.
In an advisory report to the government, Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions South Africa argues that continued coal exports are inconsistent with the country’s constitutional commitments and international legal obligations. It has called on the government to halt such exports.
The structure of South Africa’s coal export economy also reveals the concentration of corporate power in the fossil fuel sector. Bond points to the ownership structure of the Richards Bay Coal Terminal as indicative of the dominant players benefiting from export growth.
These include Anglo Operations, Black Royalty Minerals, Exxaro, Kangra, Koornfontein, Liberty, Mbokodo, Optimum Coal, Quattro, Sasol, Seriti, South Dunes, SA Coal Mine Holdings, South32 Coal, Tumelo Coal Mines and Umcebo Mining.
Shaazia Ebrahim works at the Climate Justice Coalition
Murders in Gauteng decrease while sexual assault and kidnapping trend upwards:
Gauteng recorded an overall decrease in crime across 17 community-reported categories, although Gauteng accounts for 26% of such crimes reported nationally, Provincial Police Commissioner Tommy Mthombeni says.
Presenting the province’s fourth-quarter crime statistics for the 2025/26 financial year, Mthombeni said Gauteng recorded a 15% decrease in murders and a 9.9% decline in rape cases. However, kidnapping increased by 1.6% while sexual assault rose by 5.2%.
Contact crimes, including assault and robbery, declined by 5.9%, representing 2 433 fewer cases than during the same period last year.
Murder decreased by 15% and attempted murder by 3.2%.
Mthombeni said murder cases were commonly linked to arguments, misunderstandings, road rage incidents, provocation, vigilantism and robbery.
“The 17 community-reported serious crimes have decreased by 5 066 cases, translating to a 5.2% decline compared to the same period last year,” he said.
Despite the decrease, Gauteng accounted for 26% of all community-reported serious crimes recorded across the country’s nine provinces.
Mthombeni explained that mob justice incidents contributed to 74 murders, followed by robberies with 68 and retaliation or revenge attacks with 47.
Most of the 664 murders occurred in public spaces, while 215 took place at residences.
Kidnappings increased by 38 cases, or 1.6%, to 2 452 incidents. Police said many of the cases were linked to vehicle hijackings. Gauteng remained the country’s kidnapping hotspot, averaging roughly 27 incidents a day.
“Kidnappings have increased by 1.6% during the period under review. This is one thorny area, honourable chairperson, members and honourable premier.
“While most kidnappings in the province are attributed to hijacking, our integrated multidisciplinary intervention with our national anti-kidnapping, provincial organised crime, the E2 project, we have, together, arrested 616 suspects for the period January to March 2026.”
Mthombeni added that Johannesburg recorded the highest number of contact crimes in the province, at 15 059 cases, followed by Ekurhuleni with 9 146 and Tshwane with 8 946. Sedibeng was the only district to register an increase, rising by 6.4% to 3 162 cases, while the West Rand recorded 2 761 incidents.
Police stations, including Tembisa, Ivory Park, Jeppe, Alexandra, Eldorado Park and Johannesburg Central, ranked among the country’s highest for contact crimes and murders. Jeppe, Alexandra, Ivory Park and Eldorado Park also featured prominently among stations with the highest murder counts in Gauteng.
Mthombeni attributed part of the decline in crime to Operation Shanela 2, which led to
36 122 arrests during the reporting period, including 11 715 undocumented foreigners.
Operation Shanela is a high-density crime-fighting initiative led by the South African Police Service in partnership with the department of home affairs and other agencies.
Police arrested 155 suspects for murder and 220 for robbery, alongside many arrests linked to assault-related crimes.
The operation also resulted in the recovery of 278 firearms, including 26 rifles and seven shotguns, as well as 7 849 rounds of ammunition and 163 hijacked or stolen vehicles. Police seized 1 630kg of drugs, 206kg of stolen cable, 83 770 litres of liquor and large quantities of counterfeit goods, while 1 205 illegal liquor outlets were shut down.
Mthombeni noted that the figures reflected only Operation Shanela successes and excluded routine policing outcomes.
“The total number of arrests for this quarter … is 36 122 of which 11 715 were illegal immigrants. We are mindful of the current situation in the country and what is happening in the province in terms of the anti-foreign national sentiment,” Mthombeni cautioned.
“Our focus remains on enforcing the law fairly and ensuring that all persons within Gauteng are accounted for under the law.”
He noted that most serious crime categories declined during the quarter, with arson and commercial crime among the few categories to record increases.
A total of 1 287 sexual offences cases were brought before the courts, resulting in 128 convictions. Of those, 19 offenders received life sentences, while additional sentences imposed amounted to a combined 109 years’ imprisonment.
Mthombeni said crime detection through proactive police operations increased by 12.5%, accounting for 2 447 cases.
Detection rates were particularly strong for offences including illegal possession of firearms and ammunition, drug-related crimes, sexual offences and driving under the influence. Police arrested 5 251 suspects for driving under the influence of alcohol or drugs.
The Gauteng Anti-Gang Unit secured three life sentences after the South Gauteng High Court, Johannesburg, convicted four men — Garth van Wyk, Lerul Rankow, Leon Breda and Marti Breda — of murder, attempted murder and the illegal possession of firearms and ammunition.
The group was also sentenced to a combined 24 years’ imprisonment for crimes committed in the Langlaagte and Sophiatown policing precincts in 2013.
“I want to emphasise the positive impact of collaboration between government departments in rebuilding community trust and improving service delivery,” Mthombeni said. “A whole-of-government approach remains central to the future of policing in this province.”
Joburg ANC mayoral process faces scrutiny amid claims of flawed nomination process:
The ANC’s Johannesburg mayoral selection process has come under renewed scrutiny amid claims that internal nomination procedures were not consistently followed across Gauteng’s metro regions, raising questions about compliance with party guidelines and the authority of regional structures in finalising candidates.
In Johannesburg, the regional executive committee (REC) is understood to have identified regional chairperson Loyiso Masuku as its preferred candidate for the City of Johannesburg’s mayoral position, party insiders familiar with the process say.
However, the outcome has drawn broader internal debate in the ANC after allegations that the nomination process did not unfold uniformly across all structures. In some instances, decision-making might have shifted away from REC-level deliberations.
The Mail & Guardian understands that the process was guided by instructions from the party’s secretary-general, who directed that regional executive committees must submit three names for consideration, with at least 50% of nominees required to be women, in line with internal gender parity guidelines.
Insiders said that while the instruction had been in place for some time, its implementation varied across Gauteng metros, with disputes emerging over whether proper procedures were followed in concluding final submissions to Luthuli House.
A senior ANC source said the established practice has been that REC meetings received nominations, deliberated on a wider pool of candidates and then voted to reduce the list to three names. The names were then processed through provincial oversight structures before submission to the national leadership.
The source said the provincial task team (PTT), which was meant to oversee compliance with procedure, was in some cases not fully present throughout the process, raising concerns about the consistency of oversight.
“The PTT is supposed to oversee the process, provide the ballot papers and ensure that the three highest-scoring candidates are selected through a proper vote,” the source said. “But in some instances that process did not happen as it should have.”
The disputes appear most pronounced in Johannesburg, where insiders say regional office bearers (ROB) were involved in finalising aspects of the submission, a move some in the party say might have gone beyond their mandate.
The source said the office bearers were instructed to assist in finalising additional names for submission, while the REC was responsible for identifying its leading candidate.
“On Loyiso, the decision was made by the REC,” the source said. “As for the other names, the ROBs were mandated to look around so that the REC would not simply sit and resolve the names among themselves.”
However, other party insiders dispute the extent of the delegation, arguing that the ANC constitution was clear that REC structures were the final decision-making authority at regional level, with working committees expected to make recommendations only.
“The constitution says the working committee makes recommendations to the REC and the REC takes decisions,” another source said. “What happened in Johannesburg is being questioned because that process appears to have been altered.”
The controversy comes amid wider inconsistencies reported across Gauteng’s metropolitan regions.
In Tshwane, party insiders say the nomination process largely followed established procedure — REC members voted on multiple candidates before arriving at a shortlist that complied with ranking and gender-balance requirements.
The M&G understands that in Tshwane, the process had to be started afresh after complaints were raised.
The publication understands that regional chair Bonzo Modise refused to stand as the party’s mayor.
In Ekurhuleni, M&G was also reliably informed that regional chair Nkosindiphile Xhakaza did not make it onto the list to Luthuli House.
Sources said Xhakaza was in a tie on votes as the third candidate and his name had to fall off the list.
“Jongizizwe [Dlabathi] was number one, then the caucus leader who is a female was number two, then the third person was also a female and they had the same votes as Xhakaza, so his name had to fall off,” the source said.
Another senior ANC leader in Johannesburg said the process in Johannesburg would probably be restarted because it was flawed.
“How those comrades did the process was wrong and it can be challenged. There’s just a feeling that people want to become mayor at all costs because they view this as the last train to be mayors.”
In Johannesburg, however, the process is under closer scrutiny. There are concerns that the final submission might not have fully reflected a completed REC vote in line with standard procedure.
The issue has been compounded by tension over certain candidates whose names were raised during internal discussions but ultimately not included in final submissions to Luthuli House.
Regional secretary Sasabona Manganyi declined to comment.
In recent months, the ANC has moved to centralise the selection of mayoral candidates for metropolitan municipalities and secondary cities, introducing a process that includes public nominations and final interviews conducted by the party’s top seven officials.
Under the system, at least three names are submitted for each mayoral position. Candidates are ranked and appointed in order of preference. If the first-choice candidate declines, the second or third-ranked option may be considered.
The party has said the reform was intended to broaden participation in candidate selection and improve leadership quality in municipalities facing governance and service delivery challenges.
It is expected that further engagements in provincial structures will take place to assess whether nomination processes in affected regions complied with ANC guidelines and whether any submissions might need to be revisited.
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